Addressing at this time the marketization of the economy of socialist Cuba is admittedly premature. The Cuban leadership, still firmly entrenched in the control of economic policy, has rejected all attempts at economic reforms consistent with implementation of the market system. Indeed, Castro recently equated private property with theft and vowed that Cuba would not […]
A Five-Year Projection for a Restructured Cuba
This paper presents a projection for the response of the Cuban economy to a fundamental market oriented restructuring in conjunction with a lifting of the U.S. embargo. The projection is drawn from Chapters 4 and 5 of the full study, Cuba and the New Caribbean Economic Order (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1993), but […]
Report of the Cuban American National Foundation’s Blue Ribbon Commission
What have we learned, what have been the main lessons of the numerous conferences and studies carried out by the Blue Ribbon Commission? The conclusion is one which will not surprise any of you: If Cuba wants to prosper, it must change the system under which it operates. I think we can agree on that. […]
Comments by Luis Locay on: “A Five-Year Projection for a Restructured Cuba by Ernest H. Preeg” and “A First Approximation Model of the Balance of Payments, Output, Employment and Foreign Aid Requirements of a Democratic Cuba” by José F. Alonso and Armando M. Lago
Both of these papers make numerical projections for specific sectors in a transitional Cuba. Alonso and Lago also forecast various macroeconomic variables. I will discuss the projections for specific sectors first, since these are common to both papers. I conclude with a discussion of Alonso and Lago’s macroeconomic forecasts. Projections for Specific Sectors A methodological […]
The “Cuba in Transition Project: Conclusions and Policy Options of the Economic Cluster
Cuba is in the midst of an unparalleled economic crisis. Due to the collapse of communism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Cuba lost its major economic beneficiaries and has suffered major reductions in trade. The consequences for the economy have been devastating. To cope with the crisis, the leadership has introduced a […]
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