This post takes an initial look at economic implications of the new measures announced by President Obama on December 17, 2014. The author estimates the one-year positive impact of the measures at 0.5% to 0.6% of Cuba’s GDP with the second year impact somewhat higher because of multiplier effects.[1] The impact although significant will by […]
Why has labor participation fluctuated so much in Cuba?
Cuba’s labor participation rate, the ratio of the labor force to the population of working age, has fluctuated widely over the past 2 1/2 decades. From 1989 to 1994 the rate fell abruptly as the economy went into its post-Soviet depression (see figure below). It bottomed out in 1995-96 as the economy began to recover; […]
Why has Cuba Grown so Fast?
During a session of the Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy in August 2014, Armando Linde asked a very important question. If Cuba’s workforce is stagnant, if the country’s investment to GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the world, and if total factor productivity growth has been […]
Cuba Standard Economic Trend Index
The development of the Index in 2014 suggests the worst moments of the year for the economy in terms of foreign exchange constraints are over, but for now, the CSETI does not offer yet a clear signal that the GDP will accelerate enough in the second half to reach the official goal of 1.4% for […]
Venezuela’s Liquidity Crunch Impacting Cuba
The crucial importance of Venezuela to the Cuban economy is widely known. Previous posts in this Blog evaluate the impact of a break-up of the close alliance between Venezuela and Cuba.[1] Such an outcome would constitute a severe shock for the economy of the island. The break-up could result from a change of government in […]
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