The crucial importance of Venezuela to the Cuban economy is widely known. Previous posts in this Blog evaluate the impact of a break-up of the close alliance between Venezuela and Cuba.[1] Such an outcome would constitute a severe shock for the economy of the island. The break-up could result from a change of government in […]
Cuban Exports of Human Capital: Salvation or Misery?
Since the onset of the XXI century Cuba has received billions of dollar in payments for its exports of professional workers—mainly doctors and medical personnel, but also teachers, soldiers and security experts. These professionals were shipped to Venezuela and to some of its satellites, at Venezuela’s expense. I estimate the payments at just over $7 […]
Cuba: ¿Por qué las “actualizaciones” raulistas no han tenido resultados?
Los resultados socioeconómicos de las “actualizaciones” raulistas para mejorar el desempeño socioeconómico de Cuba muestran, en el mejor de los casos, débiles resultados. Como señaló recientemente Pavel Vidal las reformas no dan frutos a pesar de la sostenida y significativa ayuda venezolana durante el siglo XXI, se está lejos del socialismo próspero y sostenible.[1] O en las palabras de […]
Recent Developments in Cuban Public Finance
Cuba’s fiscal deficit surged in 2008 reflecting climatic disturbances, the world recession, and a burst of government expenditure (see table below). Since then the deficit has been substantially reduced owing partly to a shift toward domestic expenditure restraint under Raúl Castro’s administration, and in spite of a drop in external financing. Those are the good […]
Simulation of a Venezuela-Cuba Breakup[i]
What could derail the Cuban economy? This could arise from a sharp external shock to the economy. A clear event that many analysts and commentators have in mind is the falling apart of the tight relationship between Cuba and Venezuela which is broadly compared to the alliance between Cuba and the Soviet Union during 1961-1990. […]
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